From Another Thread in the Lounge, there was a good question raised that Obama's recent fly swat incident was a subtle warning to "flyweight" North Korea not to mess with the much larger US. Opinion was posted by Dragon Buster, who stated: To which I replied: This is to continue the discussion here in the Korean forum, where people may be presumably more interested in the Korean politics and saber rattling. As with all things political, no two persons view a given situation in the same manner, so there is almost a guarantee that points of view will be divergent. Please repect another's right to their opinions. Personally directed tirades or adhominem attacks are both immature and unnecessary. Please feel free to join in with your comments, insights, and observations.
Just leave the North Koreans alone. Discontinue all aid and eventually their own people will over throw the gov't if thing are as bad as they say.
I don't think so. Isolation and sanctions, which the world has already done to the DPRK over the last half century, has produced not only zero results in terms of behavior, but rather a nuclear crisis now. The aid that it gets occasionally from the world matters does little in comparison to the support that China donates annually. The DPRK was a creation of the former Soviets and defended at the cost of an estimated one million Chinese lives. It only survived this long because of previous Soviet, and now Chinese economic support. In other words, the Russians and Chinese have not only created but have been the underpinning of the DPRK since its inception. Without the current Chinese funds that it receives, it would undoubtedly collapse. But that is the problem; the PRC government is afraid to stop giving money as a collapse would create a massive Korean refugee influx into northern China, where there is already a substantial Korean illegal immigrant population. North Koreans in the PRC are looked upon more or less as Mexicans are within the US. They're given the shitty jobs, live 10 or 20 to a room, and hide from the police. The bottom line is, the DPRK will likely be NEVER overthrown by the people. There are too many armed military controls against that. The only possibility of insurrection would be a coup by one of the many political power factions that surrounds the dictator, but that would only replace the evil empire with another similar head. And unless the Chinese funded Korean welfare is withdrawn, the DPRK really has no reason to change. This is why China needs to accept responsibility and apply economic pressure. It is holding the DPRK food life line, but has thus far refused to impose or even threaten real sanctions. Hence, China is as much a part of the problem. Oh, and if anyone ever reviewed the history of the "talks" involving the north, the problem is that it takes all sorts of giving in to bargain or trade for their "cooperation" just to sit down and talk to the world, they then bargain or get more aid just for a few promises, which they then break. So sitting down and having more talks is not going to work. The talks is simply a mechanism for the DPRK to jerk the rest of the world around because the DPRK clearly never really intended to genuinely honor any of the agreements that it signs. Talks are nothing more than a gambit used by the DPRK to stall for time and get money; they have shown repeatedly that they never live up to any agreements. The only thing that they're afraid of is a threat to their regime. Notice I didn't say a threat to the DPRK. A lesson in history is from Ronald Reagan's bombing action in Libya after the Gulf of Sidra incident. The Libyans confronted a US fleet with the resultant destruction of a Libyan radar installation. Libya's response was to have its agents blow up a German disco frequented by US military servicemen killing three people and wounding 200 more. Reagan then sent a 2000 pound bomb through Muammar Gaddafi's bedroom window in 1986. The message was clear. It wasn't the US attacking Libya anymore, Reagan made it personal. He was coming after the man that gave the orders, and he didn't give a shit what anyone thought about that. In other words, he ignored the rules, just like the bad guys routinely do. Libya, which had been the loud and frequent sponsor of international anti US rhetoric and terrorism suddenly went completely silent and remained so ever since. So target Kim's house. If he survives, he would definitely get the message. He's not about to die for his country as he's been a fat parasite living off the Korean people his whole life. He wants very much to live; thus threatening Kim personally is the only way that the DPRK is ever going to change. And yes, I know that targeting a head of state for assassination is illegal. But since legalities certainly doesn't seem to be of any restraint on the DPRK, the world should simply respond in kind. Obama's message to Kim: a gift boxed fly swatter.
In response to ralph post - based on your argument an alternative solution rather than just scaring the shit out of every current NK leader for all time would be to.... A change in Chinese policy, China cannot suddenly withdraw its funding but at the same time it knows it is supporting a growing problem for the global community, instead China should just assimilate NK into itself and treat it as a special governance region like Hong Kong and Macau. I doubt the NK civilians will care, in fact some of them might even prefer chinese citizenship. Although of course this solution would probably require China to invade NK but I think the global community would consider this the lesser of two evils. edit - for typos
I don't think your idea is ever going to work and here's why; imagine a Super Tibet right next to the other side of regular old third world Tibet that was taken over by the PRC (regardless of how you feel about that). What do you think that Super Tibet would do when it sees its brothers and sisters being abused by Chinese troops? Remember that Super Tibet has cutting edge manufacturing, electronics, fly American made F15 (Korean Variant) and floats Aegis class missile destroyers... China can only keep Tibet because there really is no competition from any imaginary Super Tibet. But a Chinese held North Korea? After a few years when people are no longer starving, pan Korean nationalism would rise to the fore. The once thankful North Koreans would then start grumbling that they want the Chinese out, and the South would do everything in its power to subvert Chinese rule of the north. In other words, China may take North Korea, but they've never be able to keep it; not with their well armed Korean brethren right next door. If anything arms would be smuggled in, "freedom" fighters would arise that would seek to remove the Chinese yoke. Lest we forget, this has already happened the last time that China thought to own Korea. Further, you have to remember that the DPRK has a tremendously large military. Those thousands of missiles and artillery pointed south could just as easily be pointed north. But, IMHO the PRC doesn't want or not need to invade the DPRK. Why would it want to take over a land that has nothing to offer except starving masses? No, what China needs to do is to exert tremendous political pressure and fully support sanctions, threaten to (and mean it) curtail food and fuel shipments that the DPRK totally relies on. The best thing that China could hope for, is to actually have the north taken over by the south. Once that happens, and there is no longer a DPRK threat, the US forces would get eventually kicked out, and China would then border on a high tech nation. Cross border trade between a united Korean penninsula would rival that of the mainland and Hong Kong. The worst thing for the south (besides being invaded) is to have to take over the north. If you want a good example of the problems of reunification with a former communist country, take a look at the defunct East Germany. After the heady Pan Germania celebrations, the FRG's people realized that they then had to pay for nearly 40 years of neglect, pervasive eastern unemployment, crime, toxic unregulated wastes dumps, and factories that did not produce anything of value... It was like their poor hillbilly cousin moved in. Many said afterwards that it was a mistake to so rapidly reabsorb East Germany before the nation was ready. Politically, IMHO the best option politically for all, is to make the DPRK simply behave better, and China is undeniably in the best position to do so. Nobody actually wants North Korea right now, ie you can't even give it away... Oh, and again, if you want the North Koreans to be all ears and really listen with rapt attention? Start to openly discuss how to engineer a REGIME CHANGE in the north. The usual smirk will be wiped off so quick Kim's face may crack. The mistake here is to perpetually assume that Kim will always be their leader so we have to play by his rules; not true.
